This is “fun”: usdebt.org.  It’s not as bad as it seems. USDebt.org’s clock doesn’t take inflation into account. The less that each dollar is worth, the less the nation is in-debt in-terms-of the work needed to pay the debt off.  Please feel free to consider this last comment to-be sarcasm, or wisdom, depending on your mood.  This one was sent in by Don Benish.  Only dangerismymiddlename.com can be held accountable for the words in this post though.

I planned to write this essay long ago.  Here’s what prompted me to write it now:

1. Super Dave Rosno (motorcycle racer, and former racing school owner) posted a Detroit Free Press article on facebook that included this quote: “A $10-billion provision tucked deep inside thousands of pages of health care overhaul bills could help the UAW’s retiree health-care plan and other union-backed plans.“
2. One of his friends blamed the automobile companies’ management for the current situation.  Here is part of what he wrote: “The company offered it as a management decision believing that they could provide the coverage at a lower cost to themselves that if they offered higher wages and allowed the workers to obtain their own coverage. The companies then took the surpluses during fat years, spent them elsewhere, and when we hit a few lean years they complain that they don’t have the money to make good on a contractual obligation.“
3. Um, no.  There was no choice there.

I worked for a GM subsidiary for a while (in a GM foundry). They have a history of merging with profitable companies, and then selling those companies for profit later on (Hughes Aerospace, EDS, all the parts companies that eventually became Delphi, etc.) Why do they do this? With the exception of Cadillac, they have been losing money on every car that they make for quite some time (based on what I saw I believe this to have been going on for decades). They sell off their actual money making businesses so that they can continue to lose money on cars (By car, I mean automobile, pickup trucks and SUV’s have small profit margins during the good years).  Why do they do this? These people, from the top to the bottom, love building vehicles. Really.

GM’s largest asset is their people, and as long as those people don’t realize that they are the company, then things can’t ever go well.

There was no choice between higher wages or better compensation. The choice was: we will shut you down now via strike, or you will go out of business later.

Remember: the union is a corporation. The difference is that the Union finds it easy to get sympathy while they are making an unreasonable amount of money.

Barf

I can’t make this stuff up.  Kay actually brought a box back from Azerbaijan.

Barf: yes this is a real product. We have some at home.

Duke Nukem Forever

Apogee Software (a/k/a 3D Realms) released the Duke Nukem video game in 1991, Duke Nukem II in 1993, and Duke Nukem 3D in 1996.  The name “Duke Nukem 3D” is a pun; it’s the third version of the game, and it’s played in 3D.  How will come up with a pun for version Duke 4?  How about “Duke Nukem Forever” (4-ever, Duke  4, get it)?  …only, it’s been 12 years since the last version of the game was released.  It really is taking them “forever” to complete it.

Ford Gremlin

Gremlin is also another name for a mechanical problem.  This was like naming your Operating System “Buggy”.

Ford Aspire

Does it aspire to be a car?

Chevy Nova

Nova: a star that suddenly increases its light output tremendously and then fades away to its former obscurity in a few months or years.

I never believed the other explanation. Folks would say, “No va means doesn’t go in Spanish!” and I would say, “The word nova means the same thing to Spanish-speaking people as it does to English-speaking people. It’s a scientific term.”

Honda Fit

• It’s small enough to fit in your other car.
• You’ll barely fit in it?
• It will remind you of your kids throwing a fit ?

Honda Odyssey

We read an English translation of Homer’s “The Odyssey” in fifth grade.  All of the men that went on the trip with Odysseus died. “I know! Let’s name a vehicle that families take on trips after a story about a trip, where almost everyone dies!  That’s a great idea!”

Honda Prelude

Remember: the prelude introduces what comes later.  OK, then that’s the car I want.

Mitsubishi Lancer

Like what? Lancing boils?

Mitsubishi Mirage

It’s not real. It’s only a mirage.

Nanotax

There is a new cancer drug called Nanotax: as if they combined the words “nano” and “tax“, and no, that’s not a mistake. NanoTax is a contraction of the words “nano”, and “paclitaxel“, but who can hear the name of this product without thinking of being taxed for every little thing?

Subaru Justy

Is it just barely a car?

From the Office of Reused Product-names

Honda Odyssey

This is a Honda Odyssey. These little guys were sold from 1977 until sometime in the 1980’s It was a very popular product, but who today thinks about anything, except minivans when they hear the name “Honda Odyssey”?  I really envied the people that drove these when I was a teenager.  I lived in the Adirondack area, and folks would ride these on the frozen ice.

The Original Honda Odyssey

Honda Pilot

The original Honda Pilot was not an SUV.  It was a miniature dune buggy, just like the Honda Odyssey.  Bad Honda.  No bisquit.

The Original Honda Pilot

Microsoft Access

Microsoft Access isn’t a very good name for a DBMS.  When I mention that folks usually say, “But it helps you to ‘access’ data”, but all programs help you to access data.  Being able to use a computer, when you cannot even get to a physical console?  Now, that would be a good product for the name Access to belong to, and it did.  Microsoft Access was originally the name of a Terminal Emulator.

Mitsubishi Lancer, Mitsubishi Mirage

At one point Mitsubishi had a couple of cars.  One was the Lancer, and the other was the Mirage.  When they decided to import the Mirage to the United States they named it the Lancer, so when they decided to import the Lancer to the United States they named it the Mirage.  Folks see these cool off-road Rally Lancers racing in Europe, so they want one like that!  Mitsubishi gives the US car some body styling to look like the Rally cars, that’s cool right? …but the racing Lancers were called Mirages in the US, so the Lancer that you bought way-back-when with the cool wing wasn’t really what those race cars were based off of at all. Those cars were actually based off of the Mirage that was sitting in your Mom’s driveway.  Why do companies reuse product names?

This is a new version of my contributions to Are emergency rooms really that big a drag on the medical system? on The Straight Dope board (A message board for fans of The Straight Dope).  I highly recommend The Straight Dope.   If your favorite newspaper doesn’t carry it, then go here. Everyone knows Snopes.com. The Straight Dope has a different purpose, but it is Snopes equal in the fight against ignorance.

Emergency rooms are not supposed to be free, but they must help everyone, and some never pay the bill. If a patient doesn’t pay her bill, then who ends up paying it? The hospital does at first, but ultimately we all do. As Shodan said, “If you are mandated to treat everyone whether they can pay or not, you have to charge those who pay more to cover for those who don’t.” We currently have a national health care system without a detailed policy for those that cannot pay. The patients, the insurance companies, and the Physicians have little means of controlling those costs.

I was in poverty for many years. I am certainly not against care for the poor. Being “against” national health care is meaningless. We have had it for quite some time (whether we are talking about Medicaid, Medicare, or yes, those that simply don’t pay). The question is whether we want control over what is happening, or not, and “not” is just bad business.

How bad is the problem? Go here to read Malcolm Gladwell’s Million Dollar Murray. Here is a teaser quote: “Culhane estimates that in New York at least sixty-two million dollars was being spent annually to shelter just those twenty-five hundred hard-core homeless.”

Being against national health care is unreasonable. We have it, we just do it really badly. Lets stop doing it badly.

Most health care costs are incurred in a person’s final three years-of-life. The best way to fix health care is to change from a culture of “extending life at all cost” to a culture of “making our last years as comfortable as possible”.

Physicians won’t let patients die, because they are incented not-to by malpractice suits.  This is one more (indirect) tax that we do not need to pay.  We need to lower the cost of malpractice by limiting the size of judgments.  All Physicians have bad results, because we all die, but that’s what they get sued for, regardless of their actual (in)competence.

Do you know who begins these lawsuits? It’s almost always a family member that wasn’t even there during a patient’s last days. The ones that were there know the Physician, and know that their loved one is dying. Its the guilt of the other relatives that fuel malpractice suits.

I should note that my wife who is a Physician believes that Physicians won’t let patients die, because its not what their culture values, more than for any other reason.  Still we need to change that culture to to a culture of “making our last years as comfortable as possible”.

Why do I feel so strongly about this?  I have had non-stop (the intensity does rise and fall) pain for 21 years now.  I understand how much discomfort can affect a person’s quality of life.

Following this introduction is a short essay that I wrote for Brooks’Rejection Emails Web site; where he critiques rejection letters. If you meet Brooks, then hire him.

My advice below eventually generated leads. That said, you never know where your next offer will come from. I met a Wal-Mart recruiter at a Diversity Job Fair during the dot-bomb implosion. (It’s not diversity without at least one caucasion man. Right?)

The Dallas Metro area lost over 78,000 IT and Telecom jobs during the 12 month period prior. Many of those folks were at this job fair. There were only two tech companies present. One of those two was interested in applicants with flight simulator engineering experience. The other said, “Go to our Web site. We are not taking resumes.” O… K… I was near the start of the line, so I let others know what I learned, and I heard a lot of, “Thanks, now I don’t have to waste anymore time here” in response to my news.

So, I introduce myself to a Wal-Mart recruiter at her empty booth. She took one look at me and said, “I am not recruiting computer programmers. I am recruiting night stockers in Dallas for the holiday season.” I reply with, “That’s OK I was a Night Stocker at Ames Department Stores. I like retail, and I like stocking shelves. Also, I would like to move to Bentonville Arkansas to be a computer programmer.” She took my resume, told me that she would bring it home, and give it to a tech recruiter, and that my-friends was the beginning of the highest paid position that I have held in my entire life. Heh, and people think that Wal-Mart doesn’t pay well… only better than everyone else!

OK, after this line comes the part that I wrote for the Rejection Emails Web site. Everything up above was just some additional rambling on my part:

I had this experience back during the dot-bomb bust. Obviously I need to paraphrase here, because this conversation happened long ago.

Recruiter:

“How are you doing your online job search?”

I then describe how I search for positions via friends, Monster, etc.

Recruiter:

“That will never work. Those ‘known’ positions potentially have hundreds of applicants. It doesn’t matter how good you are. There are just too many other applicants. Here is how I find potential applicants. One of my clients contacts me directly to fill a position. These are typically not positions that are widely advertised. My client wants to interview a small number of highly qualified people. I go to one of these Web sites (she then shows me Monster). Then I search on the keywords that are in the job description, the potential applicant’s location, etc. Then I contact the folks on the first page. I am almost always able to fill the position for someone near the top of my search results.

So, the most effective way for you to find a position is to be on that first page. You don’t look for positions, because too many other people are applying for those very same positions. You simply position yourself so that I can find you. See this? The results near the top were edited recently. Make a resume. Put it on here. Put all the technologies that you know on it, and update it every single day, even if you simply add a space somewhere. Editing it every day puts it near the top of the search results. This advice will help other recruiters find you. In the meantime I will see if any of my clients need you now.”

Needless to say, this turned everything upside down. My job wasn’t to look for a job. My job was to market myself.

This is an actual AARP online ad where a chimpanzee is pulled off a woman. I got a screenshot of the final frame, and replaced a button on it with the word “FAIL”.

1) “Monkey on your back” refers to addiction, not medical costs.

2) A story about a woman-being-mauled-by-a-chimpanzee was big news before this ad was displayed to me.

For more about bad marketing, see:

• Negative Ads Do Not Work!
• From the Office of Poorly-named Products
• MasterCard’s Truly Priceless Ad Campaign

For quite some time now I have been extolling the virtues of using actual data to estimate schedules.

Back when I was a young-pup I worked in sales-support for a massive consultancy. Most of our developers and software architects provided estimates for our schedules, but occasionally we would borrow someone from another group, and this other-group had a system for creating estimates. That system took actual-hours for doing certain types-of-tasks, crunched some numbers, and produced an estimate.

I needed to take a different approach, because my managers wouldn’t use that system.

As a sales-support-guy I had access to all of our financials, and I knew what the loaded rates were. As a developer I had access to the source code. I knew how to do division. So I made my own average-times based off-of those figures. I used those averages for my estimates. I regularly updated them whenever a project completed.

I kept estimates for different metrics: hours-per-table, hours-per-form, etc. I then made a gut-instinct-call about which ones were most relevant for a given project. I multiplied those averages by the new project’s expected number of each item, and then I averaged those averages.

The guy-from-the-other-team’s estimate was always a little low. Mine was always a little lower than that. But it was usually twice that of many other developers’. Which means that many other developers were off by more-than-100%

So, yes, I really believe in using actual evidence to create estimates. In fact anything less than what I was doing isn’t estimating at all. It’s throwing a dart at a small board. A board called “My Career” or “My Project” or “My Business”. With a blindfold on.

How does one do evidence based scheduling? Please read Joel Spolsky’s Evidence Based Scheduling essay.

Please note that the Joel’s company sells FogBugz. Please consider evaluating FogBugz.